ECONS - WGL PAKT Initiative - Evolving Complex Networks
Regional resource management under environmental and demographic change

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International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos (2011)

Inferring indirect coupling by means of recurrences

Y. Zou, M. C. Romano, M. Thiel, N. Marwan, J. Kurths

The identification of the coupling direction from measured time series taking place in a group of interacting components is an important challenge for many experimental studies. We propose here a method to uncover the coupling configuration by means of recurrence properties. The approach hinges on a generalization of conditional probability of recurrence, which was originally introduced to detect and quantify even weak coupling directions between two interacting systems, to the case of multivariate time series where indirect interactions might be present. We test our method by an example of three coupled Lorenz systems. Our results confirm that the proposed method has much potential to identify indirect coupling, which is very relevant for experimental time series analysis.